The Trajectory Africa is back!
Hey there, stranger! It’s been a while.
Yes, I know. This Substack has been dormant for A HOT MINUTE. The TLDR is that I couldn't keep up with podcasting and writing as a side hustle, alongside a full-time job. But as The Trajectory Africa evolves (more on that much, much later), I’m trying something new, but familiar if you’re subscribed to pod newsletters. Every week, I’ll aim to share key takeaways from each episode, starting with my conversation with Stephen Deng, General Partner at DFS Lab. On this episode, he’s breaking down the core concepts from his thesis piece: Africa’s S Curves - The unique shape of the African tech opportunity.
So, let’s get caught up. Basically, this conversation with Stephen kicks off Part 2 of The Trajectory Africa’s two-part series, The Engine of African Venture: A Return to First Principles. Part 1 explored the many subverticals of fintech—consumer and b2b payments, neobanking, financial operations, and cross-border payments, among others. Part 2 tackles digital commerce and logistics.
All of this builds on a first principle in training that emerged from The Trajectory Africa’s first series. (Remember that one? The OG?) It’s Principle Number 5—SMEs power tech startups by buying from them, so funding and supplying SMEs is a VC-scale opportunity. So yeah, this series will definitely kick the tires on that premise.
Anyway, on to Stephen’s big ideas…
💡 1. Africa’s S-Curves Are Unique—Longer Tails, Steeper Slopes
Unlike in Western markets, technology adoption in Africa follows a different rhythm. Transitions take longer (longer tails), but once they happen, the acceleration is dramatic (steeper slopes). This challenges standard VC timelines and calls for more patience and precision in identifying inflection points.
“It’s not a five-year cycle vs. a three-year cycle—it’s a decades-plus cycle.”
🤖 2. Cyborgs Win in Informal Markets—Not Androids
"Cyborg” startups aim to augment existing informal systems and "android" startups try to replace them. The former thrive by integrating into existing trust networks and workflows, while the latter tend to struggle in low-trust, low-infrastructure environments.
“If your market isn’t ready, replacing [value chains] with end-to-end tech is risky. Augmenting what’s already there is often smarter.”
🔁 3. Leapfrogging Is Overhyped Without Infrastructure Readiness
The leapfrog narrative has often glossed over practical realities on the ground. Many African markets aren’t ready for sudden technological transitions—because infrastructure, income levels, or policy environments aren’t there yet. The key is meeting the market where it is, not where you wish it were.
“Leapfrogging requires the right sockets. If the socket’s not there, your fancy lightbulb won’t light up.”
📦 4. B2B E-Commerce Only Works When It Creates Real Value
The true test of whether a B2B commerce company is viable? Whether it helps merchants actually make more money. That’s the stickiest value proposition, and it’s what differentiates short-term GMV-driven growth from long-term, profit-driven growth.
“If you’re not helping your customer earn more, you’re not building something sticky.”
🌍 5. The Future of Tech Looks More Like Lagos Than Silicon Valley
Stephen ends our conversation with a powerful reframing: most of the world, from rural Indonesia to peri-urban Vietnam, looks more like African markets than like the U.S. The models that win in Africa won’t be fringe—they’ll be blueprints for the future of global tech.
“This isn’t a subsidiary vision of tech. It is what tech is becoming.”
Thanks for reading, and see you next week!